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Kimberly-Clark meets Wall Street expectations, brings in the cash

It wasn't a super quarter for Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB). The consumer-products company only met expectations set for it by Wall Street. But, sometimes, that's pretty good, given the conditions the business is working in. As a matter of fact, I see that Brent Archer penned a recent post discussing how inflation is hurting Kimberly-Clark (and just about every other entity, as well). At that time, the company projected a $900 million increase in terms of inflationary pressures, double management's previous estimate. So, looking through this current earnings release, I can't help but feel that things could have been worse.

For the second quarter, net sales rose 11% to $5 billion. Earnings on an adjusted basis dropped a penny compared to the year-ago period, coming in at $1.03 per share. Like I said, that matched expectations, according to Briefing.com. Guidance for the future also appears to be in-line. Kimberly-Clark seems, to me at least, to be holding its own during a difficult time. And here's a couple cash-flow data points that should appeal to many investors. Operating cash flow for the quarter was up 16% to $753 million. Prudent management of the company's working capital benefited this metric. And on a six-month basis, cash from operations also increased, albeit not by much. That sum rose a little under 2% to almost $1.2 billion. I like to see good cash-flow numbers like that, especially for dividend-paying concerns.

And speaking of dividends, Kimberly-Clark's stock is trading at a great yield, over 4%. Of course, that means that investors buying today will need a lot of patience. You'll be paid to wait, but if you're into fast capital-appreciation rates, you probably won't get it here, not in this trading environment. Inflation will continue to be a concern for it, as well as consumer-product colleagues such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Energizer (NYSE: ENR).

(See more of today's earnings news here.)

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Earnings preview: Does Kraft have the recipe for a successful quarter?

On Monday July 28, Kraft (NYSE: KFT) will be reporting its earnings results for the second quarter. Kraft is a well-known manufacturer of supermarket foodstuffs. We all know the brands: Oreo cookies, Nabisco, Oscar Meyer and many, many others.


It should be a defensive stock, just like Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) or PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), right? Well, it is and it isn't. It's defensive in the sense that, as the cliche goes, people still want to eat their favorite foods even during recessionary times. It isn't in the sense that the stock is down by 16% (as of this writing) in the one-year time period. It does have a nice dividend yield, however, and Warren Buffet seems to like it.

What should investors be looking for on Monday? Well, they should definitely be looking at the margins. Is Kraft navigating this inflationary period in as efficient a manner as possible? I think Kraft will do OK in this regard. I'm not expecting any sort of wide expansion of gross margin, but I think management will report stability in this area.

Hershey (NYSE: HSY) , which recently reported numbers for its own quarter (see Brent Archer's idea for a trade involving Hershey options), did well in keeping margin-erosion at bay. Hershey also beat estimates by a penny. Considering that Kraft beat analyst estimates last quarter, that it has a good history of going beyond expectations and that Hershey was able to beat, then I would have to say that Kraft should have no problem beating on Monday. Hershey has had its share of troubles lately, keep in mind.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Does Kraft have the recipe for a successful quarter?

Is Disney's 'High School Musical' fad fading?

As a Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholder, the High School Musical juggernaut is important to me. It means money for the company. It means a point of distinction for Disney that adds value to its content and differentiates it from other media businesses such as News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX). It means that tweens have something realistic to relate to that reflects their own days of breaking out in song while walking through school (okay, that was a joke).

But I was disappointed to hear that a reality show extension of the brand is having a tough time in the ratings. According to this blog post at The Hollywood Reporter, the show, called High School Musical: Get in the Picture, had the worst ratings on Monday night. It's some sort of competition show with a prize related to being in some sort of video in the Musical franchise.

I'm not sure of the specifics, but my main concern is that it couldn't offer any competition to CBS (NYSE: CBS) or General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC. Remember, Disney's big model is to take its content and spread it around to enhance the value of the company's other platforms. It's all about the synergy. Unfortunately, it didn't work this time. I honestly thought that ABC would have seen huge numbers from the kids on this one. It makes me wonder if Musical might be getting long in the tooth.

Continue reading Is Disney's 'High School Musical' fad fading?

E*Trade tanks after missing estimates

Talk about an interesting day for E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC). The broker, a competitor of TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) and Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW), reported Q2 earnings on Tuesday after the market closed. E*Trade saw its stock close up on the day by almost 11% on better-than-average volume ahead of the press release. Then, after hours, the stock was down over 15% as investors digested the data. It was a wild ride indeed, and I'm glad I wasn't on it.

E*Trade saw its total net revenue decrease by 20% to around $532 million. The loss per share came in at 19 cents. According to this Reuters article, Wall Street was hoping the loss would only be 14 cents per share.

E*Trade isn't out of the woods yet, and I think it'll be a while before it fully turns itself around and recovers from the financial crisis it's been suffering. In fact, the release mentioned how the broker lost value on investments in preferred equities of Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage (NYSE: FRE) in July and that the liquidation of the investments will impact the third quarter. Yeah, I'm sure shareholders of E*Trade love to hear the names Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thrown around in the earnings report. They're sure to warm the heart.

At one time, I thought E*Trade was worth entering, and it obviously might have been worth trading ahead of the earnings (if you were quick to get out before the after-hours, that is). Now, however, I'm reticent to put any new money to work in the financial sector. It's going to be a while before the financial malaise finally lifts. Since E*Trade is still losing a lot of money and missing estimates, I see no reason to allocate any investment funds here. The stock has become too speculative, and if you want to speculate, I'm sure you can find safer sectors to place some bets.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

DuPont did okay, but it's not on my list

DuPont (NYSE: DD), a competitor of Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW), reported earnings for the second quarter today, and as Melly Alazraki stated in her Before the Bell article, agriculture helped drive results and earnings. Expectations were not just met, they were beaten by four pennies. The call was for $1.07 in earnings per share by analysts, and DuPont delivered, on an adjusted basis (excluding $0.07 related to a litigation benefit and a better tax rate), $1.11 per share. Last year at this time, DuPont reported $1.04 per share for the bottom line, giving the company about a 7% growth rate.

Shares are up as of this writing by a little under 2%. Not a bad increase considering DuPont is a stodgy Dow Jones component. But it's not exactly an exciting price rally, and it basically reflects my feelings for the earnings results. They were decent enough, but they weren't so overpoweringly good that I'd want to initiate a position in DuPont. And that's saying something, because the business is cheap on a forward-looking basis and from a dividend-yield point of view, in my opinion. DuPont thinks it can do somewhere between $3.45 and $3.55 per share for the fiscal year. With shares trading around $45, that gives the stock a decent valuation.

Yet, DuPont used cash for operations in its first six months, and capital expenditures have increased. Will the economy be kind to DuPont in the coming months? That's the wild card these days, the dreaded economy. Yes, DuPont may have done all right this quarter, but I don't need to buy it. I can look elsewhere for more compelling ideas.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Not a good time to buy American Express

American Express (NYSE: AXP) saw a big sell-off in its shares during the after-hours session on Monday following the release of its second-quarter earnings numbers. The shares already closed down over 11%.

It isn't difficult to comprehend this one. According to Earnings.com, Wall Street was hoping for the credit company to make 83 cents per share. American Express only delivered 57 cents per share from continuing operations. Not only did the company disappoint the Street by a very wide margin, but it disappointed itself, since that 57 cents per share represents a 35% drop compared to the bottom-line results achieved a year ago.

Yep, the financial crisis is still with us. American Express needed to significantly add to its credit reserves. Management stated that the economy is having a negative effect on its cardmembers, and that previous guidance can no longer be relied on. Translation: don't buy this stock! At least, that's my opinion.

I simply can't see allocating investment funds to American Express at this point. If investors wanted to get some exposure to plastic, all they would need to do is consider Visa (NYSE: V) or MasterCard (NYSE: MA). Both of these businesses are based primarily on transactions, not on credit risk. Whenever a card is used, these businesses get a little cut. And that adds up, my friends. Granted, both of these companies sold off on Monday and have been weak lately, and they have litigation risk, but I'd at least look at them for the long-term. Over time they should do well.

American Express, however, is way off my list of potential investment ideas. Not even going near this one. Name a timeframe (e.g. year-to-date, one-year, five-year, etc.), and you'll find that the stock is down. The economy is going to have to turn sharply before I even remotely consider it.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Texas Instruments disappoints Wall Street during the second quarter

Semiconductor company Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) reported results for the second quarter, and the stock sold off during the after-hours session on Monday. At one point shares were down 11%.

I can sort of see why this happened. It wasn't an exciting earnings release at all, especially in a bad market. First, the top line decreased by about 2% to $3.35 billion. Earnings from continuing operations on a diluted basis grew by only 5% to 42 cents per share. Operational cash flow declined by 42% to $520 million. Nope, not my kind of earnings release, let me tell you. Texas Instruments doesn't seem to have the right stuff in terms of bottom-line growth. Management pointed out that the challenging economy has led to weak demand. Also, let me add that, according to this article, the results missed estimates by two pennies.

I don't really want to own Texas Instruments here. If I had to buy a tech stock, I'd be more inclined to look at a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) or an Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Apple also reported earnings on Monday and saw its shares slide after delivering a much stronger quarter than the one delivered by Texas Instruments. That about says it all, doesn't it?

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Hasbro beats expectations, but the stock sells off -- what gives?

Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), big rival of Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), reported Q2 earnings on Monday, and as Melly Alazraki stated in her Before the Bell article, the toy company had some fun business results. Revenues rose over 13% to $784.3 million, and net income increased over eight times to $0.25 per share. This number beat analyst expectations by three pennies.

Yet, the stock is down today, as of this writing, by over 2%. What the heck? Well, one thing that should be noted on the earnings growth is that it really isn't as huge as it appears on the surface. Last year at this time, the company took back some warrants issued to George Lucas' media empire that caused the GAAP earnings to come in at quite a low number. If you take the effect of them out of the equation, then, unfortunately, earnings only grew this quarter by a measly penny.

Of course, it's also a tepid market day, so that could also be working against the stock. However, inflation is an issue as well. According to this article from Reuters, the specter of rising input costs is being felt. But does this mean I should no longer be bullish on the company? While I feel that inflation is something to watch with Hasbro, I remain bullish on the shares, although I would wait for a pullback so a higher yield can be received for one's investment dollars. It's difficult, I suppose, to be bullish on a toy company when I am personally bearish on both the economy and the equities markets, but I do like the recent strength of Hasbro's stock and I like the prospects for its brands (e.g., Star Wars, Transformers) ahead of the holiday season. Hasbro's portfolio is keeping me going...hopefully it will keep the stock going, too.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Time Warner and 'The Dark Knight' rule the box office

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) bombed earlier in the summer with a movie called Speed Racer. If you said you didn't see that one, I wouldn't be surprised. However, in the interest of cosmic balance, the media company scored with its new Batman flick, The Dark Knight. And when I say scored, I mean it. The film is estimated to have taken in about $155 million over the past three-day weekend at domestic theaters, according to Boxofficemojo. If this estimate holds, then it represents record business. Spider-Man 3 currently holds the three-day record of $151.1 million.

Mamma Mia!, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal didn't come close to the Bat. It came in second with around $27 million. Hancock from Sony (NYSE: SNE) was third with $14 million, and it will be crossing the $200 million mark in about a week or so. Time Warner's Journey to the Center of the Earth was fourth, while Universal's Hellboy II: The Golden Army was fifth. That film took a steep 70% drop compared to its debut-weekend performance. I didn't think it would fall that far, but I suppose the Batman juggernaut left it no choice but to step aside. It took in a weak $10 million for the weekend.

Continue reading Time Warner and 'The Dark Knight' rule the box office

Do you feel better about the Dow? You shouldn't!

So, the past few days have been cool ones for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. The market saw a nice uptrend. Click here and set the Dow to the one-month timeframe; that graph says it all. It looks like things may be okay from now on, right? Well, don't bet on it. CNBC.com reminds us about the dreaded bear-market rally. And I completely agree with the thesis: we are most likely headed back down once this market happiness runs its course.

It would simply be too easy for investors to have seen the bottom. No way, not with all the problems going on in terms of inflation and financial disasters. Oh yeah, oil has retreated, that's true, but I don't think the energy monster is in permanent hibernation. Not by a long shot. The problem with the past few days is that it plays with investors' emotions. It's played with mine, certainly. I haven't bought a stock in a while, and I really want to buy something. Maybe add to my General Electric (NYSE: GE) trade, my Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) holding. I love the dip in Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and really want to get serious about grabbing shares in Mr. Softy. My 401(k) has a lot of money waiting to be put to work. I want to transfer some of those monies into one or two of the quality mutual-fund offerings at my disposal. I can't stand having money tied up in stable-value instruments.

I just can't make a move yet. I feel that lower prices will be upon us sooner rather than later. Already, many are talking about buying opportunities for oil futures, and I fear those who hold such opinion will turn out to be correct. When oil rises again, stocks will most likely fall, and this summer fun will be just another memory of a day at the beach. I'm not saying there aren't buys out there. Again, Microsoft is looking attractive. Value investing, however, isn't. It's not the style of the day. And when value investing isn't the style of the day, your only hope is to become a deep-value investor and pray that patience is eventually rewarded.

Continue reading Do you feel better about the Dow? You shouldn't!

Earnings preview: Will McDonald's serve up healthy earnings?

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), whose competitors include Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), and Wendy's (NYSE: WEN), isn't known for being a part of a healthy diet, no matter how much branding it's done in that area. However, it is known for delivering good earnings. That's why investors probably aren't too worried when it comes to Wednesday, the day that the fast-food behemoth is set to hand off a sack of quarterly numbers at the earnings-report drive-thru.

According to AOL Finance, McDonald's beat the street by a wide margin in the first quarter. The call was for about 70 cents per share which Mickey Dee's beat by a whopping 11 cents. The previous quarters weren't as impressive, but they were solid enough. McDonald's seems to have the game of at least matching expectations down pat, so I am confident that come Wednesday, the company's bottom line will be close to the 86 cents per share that Wall Street is looking for in the second quarter, according to Earnings.com.

If McDonald's makes the number, then it will represent growth of over 20%. Double-digit appreciation is a valuable commodity in this time period. I can't say, though, that McDonald's won't have its challenges cut out for it. After all, inflation is affecting everyone, and fuel prices theoretically could hamper the popularity of the company's valuable drive-thru asset (I used one last evening myself). But McDonald's has that famous dollar menu going for it, so even in tough times, fans of fatty foodstuffs can still afford the oily, heart-clogging grub.


Continue reading Earnings preview: Will McDonald's serve up healthy earnings?

Nothing can stop the Nintendo Wii

Well, another month's gone by, and I see that the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii system is still the number-one selling console in the United States. Guess I shouldn't be surprised. According to Bloomberg, the Wii moved over 666,000 units in June. Yeah, that may be an evil number, but it's a righteous one to Nintendo, since Sony (NYSE: SNE) sold a little over 400,000 PlayStation 3 consoles last month while Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) convinced just under 220,000 users to adopt the Xbox 360. So if you add the performance of the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360 together, it's still less than Nintendo's.

Bloomberg reported that the Wii has been purchased by (or for) 10.9 million gamers, making it the number-one installed platform out there. Driving the results in June was the Wii Fit, which continues to be popular and difficult to get. However, the top-selling game software was not Wii-related, it was PlayStation 3-related, believe it or not. Metal Gear Solid: Guns of the Patriots, distributed by Konami (NYSE: KNM), sold over 770,000 discs. One big opportunity Nintendo needs to work on is third-party attachment rates. As several readers have mentioned to me, the attachment rates for the Wii isn't as good as it probably should be. Most Wii owners are in love with Nintendo-published games, but sometimes don't see the value of software made by other publishers. An increased focus on this would be helpful to the platform and its continued success.

Nintendo is setting itself up very nicely for the holiday season. Sure, it's the height of summer, but it's never too early to be thinking about the holidays, is it? I would love to get into Nintendo's stock, but I am still stubbornly holding out for a better pullback on the ADR's. I'd love to see the price close below $60 at some point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

How big will Time Warner's 'Dark Knight' be?

There will be five superheroes competing for the attention of weekend moviegoers come Friday. There's Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL)'s duo Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk, Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, General Electric Corporation (NYSE: GE)'s Hellboy (distributed by GE's Universal), and Time Warner, Inc (NYSE: TWX)'s Dark Knight. So, who's going to be the ultimate crime fighter?

I'll tell you which one prevails: Time Warner and its new Batman film, The Dark Knight, has the weekend all locked up. This is set in stone. The Hulk and Iron Man are pretty much done, Hellboy isn't a powerful enough brand name, and Hancock didn't deliver the big numbers I thought it was capable of during its debut weekend (since then, however, the movie has held up well, I have to admit). But you can bet that Dark Knight hits $100 million this weekend. Can you feel the buzz surrounding this blockbuster in the wings? I can. Several reviews I've read were full of cinematic worship for this new entry in the franchise, with special praise reserved for the late Heath Ledger and his portrayal of the fiendish nightmare known as The Joker. There's a decent marketing campaign behind the project, including promotion of the availability of IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) screenings. If there ever seemed a movie fit for Imax, this is it. Yeah, Dark Knight can't lose, it can only win big.

Of course, what about Time Warner's stock? It could certainly use a superhero right now, as it has been hovering in recent times not above Gotham City (although that would probably be treacherous enough) but above 52-week-low City. I can't say that a big opening weekend definitely won't move the stock a little just due to the excitement factor, but I wouldn't buy the company ahead of the film (I also wouldn't gamble with IMAX either). Time Warner simply is too large to be affected significantly by one movie. If you consider Time Warner at all, it would be for fundamentals and valuation (I think the company is cheap here, although with this market, I'd rather get it cheaper). Enjoy the movie first, think about the stock later...

Disclosure: I own GE and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

Harley-Davidson rallies on Q2 earnings, but I'm not taking the ride

I've never used a motorcycle before in my life and don't know much about the vehicles, but I recognize that Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is an American icon whose product represents an aspirational brand. Even so, the company and its stock finds itself on hard times. The company's latest earnings report is reflective of the current economic malaise.

The first paragraph of the Q2 release tells me almost all I need to know. Revenues declined almost 3% to $1.57 billion. Net profit on a dollar basis dropped sharply by 23%, coming in at $222.8 million. Diluted earnings per share decreased by nearly 17% to $0.95. These numbers are not good. Also, in terms of cash flow, cash was used to fund operations for the first six months of the fiscal year as opposed to being generated. Yet another negative.

As I write this, Harley-Davidson's stock is up well over 7%. Am I impressed? Not enough to buy. Undoubtedly some of this rise can be attributed to the retreat in oil futures. But do I believe the economy will now be nice to Harley-Davidson? Not yet. The company, like General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), will still have a rough time selling things that require fuel to run. According to this article, Harley-Davidson did better than expected, but that's little comfort to me. You can make an argument that the stock is cheap, but at the very least, anyone interested in buying it (again, I'm not) better wait till the euphoric rally of the day has faded.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Earnings preview: Can IBM beat the Street?

Classic blue-chip tech company IBM (NYSE: IBM), whose colleagues include Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), is due to report earnings on Thursday after the market closes up shop. What are investors looking for? Growth, of course. Should they expect it?

Well, according to Trey Thoelcke's earnings data, Wall Street is looking for IBM to deliver earnings per share around the $1.82 mark for the second quarter. Revenues should be near $25.9 billion. If Big Blue hits both of these numbers, it would show that the company is coming along fine and that the current level of the stock price is justified. Of course, Wall Street doesn't want IBM to merely hit those numbers. Oh no, that would be too easy. Wall Street wants IBM to beat those expectations. In terms of the bottom line, there is positive recent history for an earnings beat. The company handily beat estimates in the last two quarters, and met expectations in the two quarters previous to that time frame.

Will the company beat expectations? I think it will. The momentum seems to be favorable for such an outcome. In fact, in a relative sense, the stock isn't signaling a terrible report by any stretch of the imagination. The 52-week low is $97.04 and the 52-week high is $129.99. IBM closed up on Wednesday over 2% to a share price of $125.94. Doesn't sound like the market is worried, does it?

Continue reading Earnings preview: Can IBM beat the Street?

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-283.1011,349.28
NASDAQ-45.772,280.11
S&P 500-29.651,252.54

Last updated: July 25, 2008: 02:45 AM

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