Posted Nov 21st 2008 12:40PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Bad news, Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Housing, Financial Crisis
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) said today that it received a notice from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), warning that the mortgage firm could be delisted due to its rock-bottom share price. FRE has been trading below $1 for more than 30 days now, and must notify the exchange by December 2 whether it intends to rectify the problem.
If Freddie does decide to meet the NYSE's listing requirements, it will have until mid-May to address the share-price issue; if not, its common stock and preferred stock are subject to suspension and delisting. In a statement, Freddie Mac said it's "currently working with its conservator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to explore options relating to this deficiency and has not yet determined its response."
Earlier this week, Freddie's sister Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) received an identical warning from the NYSE. The troubled siblings hit the headlines for somewhat more respectable reasons earlier this morning, when the pair announced they would temporarily halt foreclosures during the holiday season.
After opening broadly higher this morning, FRE has fallen to a 6% loss at 46 cents per share. Sibling Fannie is faring better today; that stock is up roughly 9% at last check -- though today's gain takes the per-share price only as high as 36 cents.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Nov 19th 2008 12:50PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, China, Options, Suntech Power Hldgs ADS (STP)
China-based Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) is slated to report its third-quarter earnings results ahead of the opening bell tomorrow, and the solar stock looks particularly vulnerable to a post-report drubbing. Sector peer JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) fell to an all-time low last week after offering a weak outlook, while Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) today lowered its revenue forecast for 2008.
Currently, First Call reports that analysts are expecting STP to report a quarterly profit of 42 cents per American depositary receipt. Suntech has a respectable history in the earnings spotlight, having exceeded the Street's forecast in three out of its past four reports.
On the plus side, it seems as though many brokerage firms have already downwardly revised their expectations for STP. There have been 10 cuts to the firm's average 2008 earnings-per-share estimates, compared to just two increases.
Plus, several analysts have issued bearish notes on Suntech in the past few weeks: Jefferies & Co. cut its price target on November 17; JPMorgan Chase cut the stock from "neutral" to "underweight" and lowered its price target on November 16; Raymond James downgraded STP from "strong buy" to "outperform" on November 13, the same day that AmTech Research slashed its price target; and Deutsche Bank cut the stock from "hold" to "sell" on November 10.
Continue reading Suntech Power is pummeled with put volume, downgrades ahead of earnings
Posted Nov 17th 2008 11:40AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Products and services, Consumer experience, Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
Good news -- Christmas came early this year! This morning, TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO) and Domino's Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) announced that they have joined forces to bring us all one step closer to the American dream. Thanks to a joint venture between the two companies, subscribers to TiVo's digital video recording service can now order a piping-hot pie from Domino's direct from their television set.
To take advantage of this waistband-unfriendly service, TiVo customers can click "I want it" from their TV remote. However, I imagine it's possible that this simple directive may soon be replaced by a series of Jabba the Hutt-like gurgles.
Rob Weisberg, vice president of precision and print marketing at Domino's, bragged that ''This is the first time in history that the 'on-demand' generation will be able to fully experience couch commerce by ordering pizza directly through their television set." (That sound you hear is the collective hardening of the 'on-demand' generation's arteries.)
Continue reading TiVo and Domino's Pizza team up to encourage sloth, obesity
Posted Nov 14th 2008 3:33PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Bad news, Intel (INTC), Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
The shares of chipmaker Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: CY) are getting hammered today after the company warned that it will swing to a fourth-quarter loss. In a statement, Cypress cited "declining order patterns and turns from all sales channels, all end markets, all geographies, and all of our product lines. In addition, backlog continues to be weak, and we are seeing cancellations and requests for push-outs that are somewhat higher than normal."
The firm now expects to record a quarterly loss of 3 cents to 12 cents per share on sales of $165 million to $180 million. As recently as mid-October, Cypress expected to book a profit of 4 cents to 7 cents per share in the fourth quarter, with sales totaling $194 million to $204 million.
Cypress is hardly the first chip firm to fall on hard times in the current macro environment. The market has already been hit this week with a similar warning from Dow component Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), while National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) slashed its outlook and announced job cuts.
This afternoon, CY is down roughly 20%, and it's trading less than a point above its current annual low of $2.93. The chip company's warning sparked a rush in the options pits; so far, Cypress has seen more than 6 times its average daily put volume cross the tape. The bulk of these bearish bets have changed hands on the November 4 strike, which has seen volume of 2,113 contracts on open interest of 6,509.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Nov 13th 2008 10:45AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Bad news, Management
Upscale menswear firm Perry Ellis International (NASDAQ: PERY) is the latest firm to hit Wall Street with a bleak outlook on retail sales. This morning, the company unveiled its preliminary third-quarter results and dramatically slashed its earnings guidance for fiscal 2009. Chairman and CEO George Feldenkreis warned, "Our retail partners are expecting an extremely promotional Christmas season, but at this point, we have no visibility on what the Thanksgiving weekend and the Christmas season will bring."
In the third quarter, PERY anticipates diluted earnings per share of 30 to 33 cents per share, compared to 55 cents in the same quarter of 2007. Revenue for the period is expected to decline 2% from last year to $222.8 million. The final results will be released on November 20, ahead of the opening bell.
Looking ahead to 2009, the clothing concern trimmed its fiscal-year earnings guidance from $1.67 to $1.72 per fully diluted share to a range between 90 cents and $1.10 per fully diluted share. The updated forecast accounts for one-time expenses of 10 to 15 cents per share related to a strategic review of the company's brands and businesses. Revenue for 2009 is now projected to fall between $875 million and $900 million, down from a prior forecast of $910 million to $925 million.
Feldenkreis noted that the formal review process should help make PERY "a stronger and more nimble company when the economy turns around."
In light of today's slashed forecast and uncertain outlook from Perry Ellis, the stock could be hit with downgrades or price-target cuts. Zacks reports that 3 out of 5 analysts following the shares maintain a bullish Strong Buy opinion, while Thomson Financial pegs the average 12-month price target at $16.40. This consensus estimate implies an expected upside of 211% from PERY's closing price on Wednesday -- leaving ample opportunity for potential downward revisions.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Nov 11th 2008 11:31AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, General Motors (GM), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Stocks to Sell
The shares of Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) are sinking deeper into penny-stock territory this morning following a damaging price-target cut from analysts at Citigroup. The brokerage firm slashed its price target on LVLT from $2.00 to 50 cents, and reiterated its Sell rating on the stock.
After closing Monday at 94 cents, LVLT is slipping ever closer this morning to that hypothetical "support at zero." In fact, following yesterday's all-out bearish note on General Motors (NYSE: GM), one has to wonder if Deutsche Bank will soon be slapping another of its famous goose-egg targets on Level 3. The stock has closed seven out of the past 13 sessions south of the $1 level, and its descending 10-day and 20-day moving averages have provided stubborn resistance in recent months.
In fact, while many analysts have already denounced LVLT, there's still room for potential downgrades or price-target cuts. Zacks reports two Buy or better ratings from brokerage firms, and these bulls may soon be shamed into lowering their opinions (if so, they would join six analysts who consider the stock a Hold, and six who deem it a Sell or Strong Sell).
Meanwhile, Thomson Financial pegs the average 12-month price target at $1.68, a premium of 87% to the equity's closing price on Monday. While more negative notes could drag the shares lower, there is a bright side -- from their current level, the shares could only lose about 85 cents.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Nov 6th 2008 12:12PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Apple Inc (AAPL), Employees, iPhone
While my colleague Joseph Lazzaro noted earlier that continuing jobless claims are at a jaw-dropping 25-year high, we certainly can't blame the gadget-masters at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) for this weakness in the job market. According to an SEC filing on Wednesday, the tech-sector heavyweight ramped up its payroll by 48% in fiscal 2008.
The Cupertino, California-based company reported 32,000 full-time and 3,100 temporary and contract employees as of September 27. That's up from 21,600 full-time workers and 2,100 temporary or contract staffers in fiscal 2007. Of those new hires, it seems that 8,000 went to work at Apple's retail outlets -- 50 new Apple stores were opened during the course of fiscal 2008.
In its first full quarter on the market, Apple reported that it sold 6.9 million iPhone 3Gs. However, it seems unlikely that sales of the smartphone will be so impressive in the future. Analysts at Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. have already warned that their checks indicate a significant slip in iPhone production, and that sentiment was echoed Wednesday by UBS. Analyst Maynard Um warned that "recent data points may suggest unit volumes weaker than our current estimate of 5 million" for the December quarter. The production slip could reduce Apple's earnings per share by 5 cents.
At last check, AAPL is down about 3% to hover near the century mark.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Nov 5th 2008 11:15AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC), EMC Corp (EMC)
Shares of VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) are headed lower today following a downgrade from Merrill Lynch. The brokerage firm cut its rating on the equity from Buy to Neutral due to valuation concerns; VMW has added more than 60% since its October 21 earnings report. Merrill maintains a $31 price target on VMware, which represents a premium of just 1.4% to the stock's closing price on Tuesday.
It's shaping up to be a rough week for VMW. Yesterday, the tech stock sat out a broad-based rally in the equities market, and slumped to a daily loss of nearly 4% as word hit the Street that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) chopped its VMware stake in half. Specifically, Intel unloaded about 4.75 million of the 9.5 million VMW shares it purchased in July 2007. According to a regulatory filing, half a million shares each were sold to Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) -- the latter of which already owns a majority stake in VMW.
With VMW shedding nearly 6% out of the gate this morning, it seems likely that the shares will add on to their year-to-date slump of more than 64%. The stock continues to find resistance from its 10-week and 20-week moving averages, and a reversal of optimism among option traders could accelerate the equity's decline. During the past 10 days, investors on the International Securities Exchange have bought to open nearly two times more calls than puts on VMW.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Nov 3rd 2008 4:40PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Agriculture, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT)
Fertilizer firm Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) was hit with a price-target cut from analysts at UBS today. The brokerage firm slashed its target price from $150 to $130, but reiterated its Buy rating on the stock. It's been a schizophrenic day for the company, brokerage-wise; the late-breaking note from UBS effectively dashed the upward momentum POT gained this morning when Dundee upgraded the North American fertilizer sector to Overweight.
In fact, "schizophrenic" more or less sums up analyst activity on POT during the past several weeks. Following its third-quarter earnings report on October 23, Potash Corp. received no fewer than five price-target cuts, along with three reiterations of bullish Buy or better ratings, plus an upgrade. To make matters even more interesting, this is the second price-target cut UBS has issued on POT in the past week -- the first cut, on October 29, was from $165 to $150.
According to Thomson Financial, the deluge of downward revisions might not be over yet. POT's average 12-month price target is $115.98. This consensus estimate represents a rather healthy premium of 36% to the stock's closing price last Friday. Considering that POT shares have plummeted about 41% year-to-date, it seems safe to say that expectations might be too high for this Canadian import.
Continue reading Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan slapped with a price-target cut
Posted Nov 3rd 2008 11:18AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Financial Crisis
Merrill Lynch analyst Guy Moszkowski had some harsh words this morning for Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS). Rather than a fourth-quarter profit of $2.98 per share, the analyst now expects Goldman to lose 49 cents per share during the quarter. If his prediction comes to pass, it will mark the bank holding company's first-ever quarterly loss as a public company.
While Moszkowski razored his price target on GS from $159 to $100, he maintained his Neutral opinion on the stock. The new target represents a premium of 8.1% to the stock's closing price last Friday. The analyst cites the "stressed" equities market as the primary driver behind his dramatically reduced outlook on Goldman.
In a note to clients, Moszkowski explained that Morgan Stanley's (NYSE: MS) business mix should allow it to weather the choppy market conditions better than Goldman. He trimmed his fourth-quarter earnings forecast on Morgan as well -- dropping his estimate from 72 to 36 cents per share -- but considers the stock a Buy.
The analyst stated, "We still think GS remains in many ways at the forefront of the capital markets industry, but if it can't consistently produce a premium return on equity, it's not going to be able to continue to have the premium valuation multiple that it has enjoyed." As of last Friday's close, Goldman's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.63 dwarfed Morgan's ratio of 4.03.
In today's session, MS is up about 5%, compared to Goldman's gain of about 1.2%.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Oct 29th 2008 12:45PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Coca-Cola (KO), Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE)
Blue-chip soda titan Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) slipped into the red this morning after Standard & Poor's last night revised the company's outlook to "negative." The ratings change also affects the Dow component's two main bottling units, Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) and Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling (NYSE: CCH). Analyst Jean Stout noted, "Weak economic conditions in select markets and volatile commodity costs have pressured the Coke system's operating performance."
Currently, Coca-Cola's S&P rating is "A+," the fifth-highest investment-grade notch. The downwardly revised outlook indicates that the rating is in danger of being cut over the next one to two years. In response to S&P's "negative" label, CCE postponed pricing a previously announced, $1 billion bond issue.
Stout added that "reduced share repurchases at Coke could restore some financial flexibility to the Coke system," but warned, "weakening macroeconomic conditions, as well as further acquisitions at Coke, CCE, or CCHB will likely further weaken Coke system credit measures."
Continue reading Coca-Cola's outlook slashed at Standard & Poor's
Posted Oct 28th 2008 11:11AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, MasterCard Inc'A' (MA), Morgan Stanley (MS)
Credit-card concerns Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) and MasterCard, Inc. (NYSE: MA) will be shelling out up to $2.75 billion to settle an antitrust suit with Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS). Specifically, MasterCard will pay Discover $862.5 million in the fourth quarter, while Visa will fork over $1.89 billion over the course of 2009. Following the release of the settlement's details, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods is weighing in favorably on all three firms.
Sanjay Sakhrani called the news "a big win for Discover, as it provides an additional cushion to contend with the implications of a weaker U.S. economy." He expects the payments will add about $1.75 to Discover's earnings per share. However, he also cited the report as an upside catalyst for MasterCard and Visa, as it eliminates an overhang on shares of both companies -- an assertion supported by analyst Julio C. Quinteros, Jr., of Goldman Sachs.
Unfortunately, though, it's not all sunshine and rainbows in the credit-card group today. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has filed its own suit against Discover in New York State Supreme Court, alleging that it's entitled to a chunk of the $2.75-billion settlement. DFS was spun off from Morgan Stanley last year, and the latter company claims that it should receive a portion of the award under the terms of a special dividend agreement.
Not so fast, says Discover, which alleges that its parent company is in violation of their spinoff agreement, and "the amount of Morgan Stanley's special dividend is a matter of dispute." Morgan fired back that "there is absolutely no basis for Discover's claim that the agreement was breached." Stay tuned to see how this credit-card drama plays out -- in early trading, shares of all three credit card companies were higher.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Oct 27th 2008 6:00PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Management, Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), Wal-Mart (WMT), Goldman Sachs Group (GS)
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. See all 26.
You may have noticed, as I did, that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson seemed colossally uncomfortable during his testimony before Congress in September. Obviously, no one would enjoy jumping into Paulson's shoes and defending the merits of the government's $700-billion bailout bill to skeptical senators. However, the good Secretary's level of discomfort went up to 11 when the legislators began grilling him about the obscenely fat pay packages received by Wall Street CEOs -- even those who, you know, bankrupted their companies and stuff?
I can't blame Hank for breaking a sweat. Before he assumed the role of Treasury Secretary, Paulson was better known as the handsomely compensated CEO of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). To his credit, Goldman is one of the few titans of Wall Street still standing in the wake of the mortgage-backed securities mess. Although he managed not to drive his company into the ground, I'd argue that Paulson is not quite impartial enough to lead the charge for CEO pay reform.
On the other hand, I have never received a salary that could be described as "scandalous." Plus, I have a healthy amount of indignant rage regarding the pay packages scored by such Wall Street ne'er-do-wells as Richard Fuld of Lehman Brothers and Martin Sullivan of AIG (NYSE: AIG). With this arbitrary sense of entitlement, I feel more than qualified to suggest some new guidelines for executive pay.
Continue reading Makeover needed: CEO pay
Posted Oct 23rd 2008 12:30PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Sun Microsystems (JAVA)
Earlier this week, my colleague Douglas McIntyre observed that Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) "is one of the worst performing large-tech companies in America." It seems that ratings firm Fitch agrees with his take as last night it slashed JAVA's ratings outlook from "stable" to "negative." As a result of the move, JAVA is trading just pennies away from its annual low of $4.51 this morning.
In a release, Fitch cited a litany of challenges facing Sun Micro, including deteriorating demand outlook, recent share losses in the server market, significant decline in gross margin, and the expectation for continued pressure on information technology spending into 2009.
Even more troubling, investors learned today that Sun's co-founder, Andreas von Bechtolsheim, is stepping down from his role as chief architect to work for start-up firm Arista Networks.
However, as bleak as things may seem for Sun, another report adds an interesting angle to McIntyre's suggestion that JAVA should be sold to the highest bidder. Southeastern Asset Management, a value investment firm, said Wednesday that it's boosted its stake in Sun Microsystems to 21%. The firm said that it plans to hold discussions with Sun's management "regarding opportunities to maximize the value of the company for all shareholders." And we all know what that's code for, right? Stay tuned to see how this potential M&A deal unfolds.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
Posted Oct 21st 2008 10:30AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Citigroup Inc. (C), Morgan Stanley (MS)
Goldman Sachs analyst William Tanona reinstated coverage of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) today with a s Sell rating and a six-month price target of $11. In a note to clients, the analyst wrote, "We believe weak economic data will keep the stock under pressure over the next six months, and it is tough to see why the stock would head higher over this period."
In fact, Tanona expects the shares to decline. Citigroup closed yesterday at $15.09, which means the analyst expects about 27% downside during the next six months. To emphasize the depths of his bearish sentiment, Tanona added Citigroup to Goldman's "conviction sell" list, and warned that the Dow component may not return to profitability until the second half of 2009.
On the other hand, the broker feels bullish toward Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), which he expects to generate profits over the next four quarters. He cited Morgan's limited exposure to consumer credit as a positive catalyst for the stock. In order to play on these starkly contrasting expectations, Tanona recommended a paired trading strategy on the two banks; he advises investors to go short Citigroup and long Morgan Stanley.
In morning activity, traders seem to be taking heed -- Citigroup shares are down 2.8%, while MS is approaching a 4% gain.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Next Page >